The
ECB's decision-making governing council is to convene at the bank's Eurotower
headquarters, with financial markets hoping president Mario Draghi will reveal
details of a revamped programme to buy up the sovereign debt of eurozone
countries.
Nevertheless,
analysts and ECB watchers warn against expecting too much from the meeting.
"Expectations
for the ECB meeting are high, perhaps too high," said Marie Diron, senior
economic adviser to Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast.
"We
do not expect a change in rates but we believe it is highly likely that the ECB
will announce a resumption in its bond purchasing programme. What is not so
clear is how the ECB will attach conditions to these purchases," Diron
said.
The ECB
launched its contested Securities Market Programme (SMP) in May 2010 to help
debt-wracked eurozone countries that were finding it difficult to drum up
financing in capital markets.
But the
programme has fierce opponents, particularly in Germany, who argue the scheme,
which has succeeded in bringing down the borrowing costs of crisis-hit
countries, is tantamount to monetary financing, where the central bank prints
money to pay off a country's debt.
That is
expressly forbidden under the ECB's statutes.
There
are also fears the measures will fuel inflation, ease the pressure on
over-spending governments to get their finances in order and erode the ECB's
independence.
In the
face of such opposition, spearheaded by Bundesbank president Jens Weidemann,
Draghi is expected to attach new conditions to any new bond purchases.
Speaking
before the European Parliament's committee for economic and monetary affairs
earlier this week, Draghi provided some hints as to what the revamped SMP might
look like.
He
signalled that the ECB would limit the eligible maturities to a maximum of
three years.
Another
condition might be that countries wishing to benefit would have to request a
bailout from one of the eurozone's rescue funds, the EFSF or the ESM, to ensure
they continue their reforms.
The ECB
has other tools at its disposal to help fight the crisis fires, such as a
reduction in key eurozone interest rates.
Since
the crisis re-erupted late last year, the central bank under Draghi has brought
benchmark borrowing costs down to an all-time low of 0.75 percent.
Additional
easing might be on the cards if the eurozone economy -- which already
contracted by 0.2 percent in the second quarter -- weakens further.
Nevertheless,
economists are divided as to whether further rate cuts will be announced as
early as this week.
Natixis
economists said they were expecting a quarter-point rate cut to 0.50 percent.
Source: MSN.Com
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